OP/ED
SPECULATIVE GOVERNANCE: THE HIGH PRICE OF NIGERIA’S NATIONAL DATA DEFICT
By Pedus C. Eweama
▪️Photo: Dr Pedus C. Eweama brilliantly dissects Nigeria’s data deficits.
Nigeria’s government at all levels lacks reliable data sources to plan, implement and evaluate effective government policies and programs. No nation can strategically plan without knowing its population burden. Nigeria’s last census was in 2006, when the population was recorded as 140 million people. Given the changing dynamics of Nigeria’s demographic landscape, this data has become markedly obsolete. Despite concerns about flawed data collection modalities, poor analysis and the need to improve the quality of data collection and analysis, policymakers then had at least something to work with.
Beyond the impetus for data-driven national policies, the United Nations views national population and housing censuses as critical, irreplaceable sources of disaggregated data required for sustainable development, policy planning, and human rights tracking, as outlined by the UNSD Demographic and Social Statistics programme. More than 20 years after the last census, there are no clear plans by the Federal Government of Nigeria, which oversees the national census, to undertake an overdue national census, with current population estimates of 220 – 230 million relying heavily on demographic projections. Regrettably, most States and local governments in Nigeria lack data on who lives within their jurisdiction, making infrastructure planning speculative at best.
The UN considers the national census a foundational tool for evidence-based governance, economic planning, and social welfare. Without it, populations face a “data emergency,” leaving vulnerable groups uncounted and structurally invisible. Under Resolution E/RES/2025/13, the UN Economic and Social Council established the 2030 World Population and Housing Census Programme, urging all member states to conduct a census between 2025 and 2034.
Unfortunately, Nigeria lacks an entrenched road map for periodic census exercises or a national policy on population management. While there are discussions about a digital, biometric census by the National Population Commission (NPC), these discussions appear to be undermined by poor institutional readiness, insufficient funding commitment, logistical difficulties, and national security challenges.
Without data-driven policies, policymakers risk continuing to misallocate resources through a “fire brigade” approach.
Without proper enumeration, marginalised communities and States without political connection to the centre may easily become more isolated in terms of infrastructure projects – schools, hospitals and road networks.
Relying on historical figures leads to errors in economic forecasting and infrastructure scaling. While traditional headcounts remain vital, the UN supports integrating modern technology, geospatial referencing (georeferencing), and hybrid models that combine traditional enumeration with administrative registers and alternative data sources.
Unfortunately, Nigeria lacks reliable administrative data such as tax records, social security registries, social medicine enrolment data or accurate electoral rolls to reliably estimate population movement. The nation lacks effective geospatial and digital footprints such as satellite imagery, housing construction approval data, and digital utility connections to help model rapid urban growth between major cities.
Although difficult to compare on many fronts, progressive democracies have entrenched policies on population management that include periodic national censuses. For instance, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ensures every person and household in the country was counted during its last census on Tuesday 11th of August – 5 years after its last census as part of 5 yearly census exercise. It is compulsory, and participation is required by law for everyone in Australia on census night, including visitors and visa holders. A consistent policy on the national census, obtained in most democracies, helps in the strategic planning for schools, healthcare, roads and public transport infrastructure.
In the last 20 years, Nigeria has effectively relied on mostly flawed official statistics, administrative databases, and population records by key public agencies to formulate national policies.
What official sources of data does Nigeria rely on for national policy?
Unfortunately, instead of the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, African Development Bank and all other international development agencies relying on Nigeria for reliable national data, the reverse is the case – often incomplete, inaccurate and not reflective of our national realities.
Presently, core official data sources for Nigeria national policy-makers include the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), National Population Commission (NPC) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Operating under the Statistics Act 2007, the NBS provides core official socio-economic statistics, provides inflation information, GDP metrics, and demographic indicators used for economic planning. National Population Commission is similarly responsible for generating population counts, housing surveys, and vital registration data (births and deaths) essential for developmental allocation and social welfare mapping. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) supplies monetary, financial, and macroeconomic data utilised for banking, fiscal and inflation-related policy design.
Nigeria also relies on digital, identity and administrative databases and tries to integrate institutional databases like the Bank Verification Number (BVN), tax identification numbers from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), and Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System (IPPIS) data to track public expenditure and manage the workforce, but the fragmentation of its data sources, inability to harmonise and consolidate available data sets, capacity gaps within public and private sectors, and lack of advanced data analysis and evaluation modalities have hampered evidence-based, data-driven national policies.
Bridging the Gap
Data discrepancies and inaccuracies, historical misplaced resource allocations, controversial spending regimes, and public scepticism have constrained reliance on national statistical modelling and, in turn, national policy has mostly relied on the dictates of politicians, often driven by emotions rather than evidence.
Part of any meaningful government reform should include investment in and institutionalisation of a culture of accurate data harvest, analysis and evaluation modalities that reflect Nigeria’s reality and global best practice. Government decisions based purely on demographic projections alone are usually unreliable at best and fraught with inaccuracies that often reflect nothing more than political patronage. Nigeria needs to imbibe the systematic use of reliable research, robust data analysis, and rigorous monitoring and evaluation. Without these important upstream capabilities, it will remain increasingly difficult for the government to understand population needs, design targeted interventions, track progress, make timely adjustments and deliver evidence-based results.
Nigeria’s issues are much more than poor policy implementation; there are marked weaknesses in upstream data collection and poor evidentiary use of critical data sets, which have led to fragmented development plans, leading to unrealistic assumptions, misplacement of priorities and misallocation of resources. The mismatch between evidence and policy remains a barrier to national development, and until we begin to rely on accurately generated data to inform our program planning and design, it will remain difficult to institute effective performance tracking and appraisal mechanisms, which perpetuates poor governance outcomes at all levels of Nigerian government.
▪️Dr Pedus Eweama is an award-winning Australian-based medical practitioner and National Merit Award recipient. He writes from Perth, Western Australia and can be contacted via Pedusc@yahoo.com.
© 2026
